Gerasimov Doctrine

As we edge closer to a) larger war in the Middle East, b) simultaneous exhaustion of the US cohesion and combat readiness due to decades of strain, and growing Russian combat (hybrid and otherwise) capabilities due to the reverse in their oil fortunes, and c) inevitable US-Russia collision, prodded by the Chinese who stand to benefit in either case, so grows the significance of understanding your enemy's cognitive processes.

If you have not heard about the Gerasimov Doctrine, and would like to educate yourself about the framework the greatest enemy of the Western civilization has ever seen (no, not the Islamic fundamentalists), here are two excellent articles on the matter:

• Dr. Mark Galeotti's "The Gerasimov Doctrine and Russian Non-Linear War"
• Charles K. Bartles' "Getting Gerasimov Right"

America at the Precipice

(restored after an accidental deletion)

We are living in an interesting time .... As Americans, we are staring at the precipice, considering whether to make the next step. The far-right, fueled by the Russian money and led by their puppet as a part of probably the greatest asymmetric offensive on the Western world, realizing that the generational shift of power to the Millennials means their demise until the next cycle some 50-60 years from now, is making its last stand. And they are willing to do anything and everything - cheat, roll back freedoms, intimidate, corrupt, whatever, not to lose.

Across the ocean, a decrepit Russia is watching this with baited breath. Stuck between the juggernaut of China and NATO, they've gone after the West because it's more heterogeneous, where their money can deliver a double-whammy of financing the far-right and lubricating the human trafficking channels that flood Europe with waves of refugees, only to seemingly give credence to their puppets.

The US is the linchpin of this gambit - if Trump wins, the following is the worst case scenario, each stage building on the previous one:

• Economic warfare against Russia would cease, leading to the replenishment of its capabilities and reserves
• US economy goes into recession
• Global trade is disrupted, leading to a global economic slowdown
• System of checks and balances is curtailed or demolished (already in progress, giving the FBI's interference in the election process)
• Domestic instability spikes, leading to a crackdown
• US becomes a de facto fascist dictatorship
• NATO is weakened, or abolished
• Europe is left to face Russia alone, and turns into a bloody mess
• The world is be re-divided between the US, Russia and China
• Global conflict ensues between a weaker US, a much stronger Russia and China when the scheme breaks down, as it inevitably would. Global nuclear war.

If Hillary wins, the worst case scenario would be:

• Far-right rejects the elections' outcome
• Cold, or hot, civil conflict begins
• Paralyzed, the US cedes initiative to Russia
• War in Europe begins
• US government defeats the rebels, domestic conflict concludes
• US enters the war in Europe
• Russia, bled dry by the conflict, collapses
• China ceases Siberia and Far East, Japan - Sakhalin and other coastal areas and islands
• Russia is divided into the US, EU, Chinese and Japanese protectorates

I know both seem far fetched, but the absolute majority of people simply either don't realize how quickly wars are sparked and engulf huge areas (war in Ukraine was started by 15 Russian mercs; in Syria - by Assad's police firing on protesters), or live in denial.

We stand at the precipice .... and we must chose the America as a diverse democracy, even if it means everything I mentioned before. Because the alternative means no future.

The Eye of Kremlin Looks South

Landscape overview:

The war in Ukraine continues, unabated, but largely out of the Western headlines. The Russian intervention in Syria continues as well, albeit reduced in scope, thanks to the Turks cutting the Russian supply lines by closing their air space and harassing the Russian ships at Bosporus.

The American long-game of economic isolation and sanctions is paying dividends, with the Russian economy on the verge of collapse, and the level of living sliding deep into the undeveloped world category. 

The Syrian migration gambit paid off by significantly destabilizing the EU, more due to the moral and societal choices made by the European society than to the Kremlin's designs.

Russian population has become ever more militant, raising the spectrum of the darkest days of the Soviet empire. Russia has reignited the Armenian-Azeri conflict to draw the Turkish attention away from its southern borders, sponsored a series of terrorist acts in Turkey itself to punish it for interfering in the Russian plans in Syria, and stoked the ambers of the Georgian war by announcing a Crimea-like referendum in Ossetia.

NATO has been busy building up its rapid response forces and air defenses along the EU's eastern border, and landed a token force in Georgia.

Board is set, what now?

Russia's situation is getting desperate, but Kremlin is not yet done playing, not by a long shot. An actual confrontation with NATO would be a disaster, thus Putin needs a way to somehow jam NATO's ability to respond. And he has found his intended Trojan horse in Bulgaria, which occupies a strategically important geographic location, especially for the Russian designs in Syria.

It is no secret to anyone who's paying attention that Bulgaria, the poorest EU country, is essentially a mafia-run state, ruled by corrupt post-Communist elites with deep ties to Moscow. The country's economy is in a downturn; media landscape has recently seen a significant amount of Russian investment; the Black Sea coast has been colonized by a sizable Russian population. This, in addition to historical mythology peddled by the Russian interests to the Bulgarian population for over 200 years, has created a favorable for Putin platform to thrust the Russian hybrid war machine into the gears of NATO, in hope that Bulgaria is NATO's Achilles' heel.  

Recently, the level of activity and communications between Sofia and Moscow has spiked, obvious to observation. Bulgarian government has passed several new laws, essentially blocking the Bulgarian diaspora from taking any part in the domestic discourse and elections. Groups of masked men wearing the Georgiev ribbons have made appearances in Burgas and other Black Sea towns, carrying a marked resemblance to the DNR/LNR scenarios that played out in the Eastern Ukraine. It is clear that Moscow is applying a lot of pressure to the Bulgarian elite, and is trying to saw confusion and fear in the regions with a high number of ethic Russians.

Ultimately, having Bulgaria openly side with Russia would be the tactical victory Putin is seeking there - it would confuse the NATO processes, as now its membership would be divided. 

However, in my opinion, Putin will suffer yet another miscalculation - his designs in Bulgaria require vast amounts of money to pay for the risk the local elite would be assuming if they play ball. And money is evaporating from the Russian treasury at an alarming rate, with already little left in the reserves. Russia itself no longer appears to be a desirable destination should the gambit fail and the need to flee emerges, a la Yanukovich. Thus, I expect a lot of maneuvering by the Bulgarian government between the EU and Russia, and possibly some terrorist activity along the Black Sea coast, which may lead to a serious destabilization of the country, but not its open transition into the Russian camp.

Analysis of the Current Geopolitical Situation: US, Ukraine, Russia

1. The US is clearly not interested in a rapid collapse of Russia, as the task of securing the Russian WMD's, nuclear power stations, bio- and chemical weapon storage sites, etc., would fall squarely on its shoulders. Logistics of getting it done, across the 1/8th of the planet's landmass, are extremely challenging, and the US (or NATO) is currently not in a position to pull it off to a degree that would satisfy the decision makers.

2. This task is further complicated by the world community's expectation of the US/NATO to prevent China from absorbing a large chunk of the Russian Far East, and from enlarging its arsenal at the expense of the Russians, in case the Russian Federation falls apart under the external pressure of sanctions and internal rot of the regime's command structure.

3. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the US/NATO will arm the Ukrainians any time soon, as a military defeat of the Russian forces within Ukraine, followed by a successful repelling of the consequent Russian invasion, would undoubtedly mean the end of Putin's regime with a high probability of initiating the collapse of the RF as an entity.

4. Given the situation, the US will continue to play a long game, slowly suffocating the Russian economy with further sanctions, and to weaken its role as a regional power by actively undermining the Moscow - Tehran - Beijing power grouping. Congress will continue to occasionally clamor for more, but it is unlikely that any additional overt measures will be taken to strengthen Ukraine beyond the scope of those already introduced. 

5. At the same time, NATO will continue to maintain, or even grow, the presence of its rapid deployment forces along the borders with Russia. The US will continue to fund the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, increasing the quality of its rapid deployment capabilities and preparing them for the task of occupation and holding hostile ground.

It's Not Ukraine vs. Russia Anymore

There is much discussion in Ukraine about the West abandoning the country to its fate in the face of the Russian aggression. That's not true - the West has prevented the collapse of the Ukrainian economy with loans, is actively funding reforms (Prosecutor-General's office, etc.), and provided half a billion dollars-worth of non-lethal aid to the military. Clearly, not even close to being enough, but not nothing. At the same time, this conflict is no longer about Ukraine vs. Russia - it has become a global contest of the West vs. Russia, in which Ukraine is just a player, and far from the main one given its relative current weakness. The West is using Ukraine to tie up the Russian forces and bleed Russia in blood and treasure, which is important in its own right, but delegates Ukraine to a secondary role. At least until the active phase of the conflict begins.

As it stands today, the outdated Russian military technological base is no match for the NATO forces. It's stationary and mobile land nuclear capabilities are in a sorry state, and would quickly fall victim to the preventative or counter-strikes by the NATO. Russia's much touted nuclear capablity is also likely to have been hugely exaggerated, given the state of the domestic Uranium and Plutonium industries (nuclear warheads have a set utility horizon, which decreases every year). Thus, the only truly dangerous to the West weapon in Russia's arsenal is its fleet of nuclear submarines, which are difficult to detect, and thus difficult to counter.

However, the US has taken step to increase its capabilities in submarine detection, among other precautions, signaling a soft transition to a new phase of the conflict. More information can be found in this article: Pentagon Increases Budget to Counter Russia.