Analysis of the Current Geopolitical Situation: US, Ukraine, Russia

1. The US is clearly not interested in a rapid collapse of Russia, as the task of securing the Russian WMD's, nuclear power stations, bio- and chemical weapon storage sites, etc., would fall squarely on its shoulders. Logistics of getting it done, across the 1/8th of the planet's landmass, are extremely challenging, and the US (or NATO) is currently not in a position to pull it off to a degree that would satisfy the decision makers.

2. This task is further complicated by the world community's expectation of the US/NATO to prevent China from absorbing a large chunk of the Russian Far East, and from enlarging its arsenal at the expense of the Russians, in case the Russian Federation falls apart under the external pressure of sanctions and internal rot of the regime's command structure.

3. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the US/NATO will arm the Ukrainians any time soon, as a military defeat of the Russian forces within Ukraine, followed by a successful repelling of the consequent Russian invasion, would undoubtedly mean the end of Putin's regime with a high probability of initiating the collapse of the RF as an entity.

4. Given the situation, the US will continue to play a long game, slowly suffocating the Russian economy with further sanctions, and to weaken its role as a regional power by actively undermining the Moscow - Tehran - Beijing power grouping. Congress will continue to occasionally clamor for more, but it is unlikely that any additional overt measures will be taken to strengthen Ukraine beyond the scope of those already introduced. 

5. At the same time, NATO will continue to maintain, or even grow, the presence of its rapid deployment forces along the borders with Russia. The US will continue to fund the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, increasing the quality of its rapid deployment capabilities and preparing them for the task of occupation and holding hostile ground.

It's Not Ukraine vs. Russia Anymore

There is much discussion in Ukraine about the West abandoning the country to its fate in the face of the Russian aggression. That's not true - the West has prevented the collapse of the Ukrainian economy with loans, is actively funding reforms (Prosecutor-General's office, etc.), and provided half a billion dollars-worth of non-lethal aid to the military. Clearly, not even close to being enough, but not nothing. At the same time, this conflict is no longer about Ukraine vs. Russia - it has become a global contest of the West vs. Russia, in which Ukraine is just a player, and far from the main one given its relative current weakness. The West is using Ukraine to tie up the Russian forces and bleed Russia in blood and treasure, which is important in its own right, but delegates Ukraine to a secondary role. At least until the active phase of the conflict begins.

As it stands today, the outdated Russian military technological base is no match for the NATO forces. It's stationary and mobile land nuclear capabilities are in a sorry state, and would quickly fall victim to the preventative or counter-strikes by the NATO. Russia's much touted nuclear capablity is also likely to have been hugely exaggerated, given the state of the domestic Uranium and Plutonium industries (nuclear warheads have a set utility horizon, which decreases every year). Thus, the only truly dangerous to the West weapon in Russia's arsenal is its fleet of nuclear submarines, which are difficult to detect, and thus difficult to counter.

However, the US has taken step to increase its capabilities in submarine detection, among other precautions, signaling a soft transition to a new phase of the conflict. More information can be found in this article: Pentagon Increases Budget to Counter Russia.