Monday, August 17, 2015

It's Not Ukraine vs. Russia Anymore

There is much discussion in Ukraine about the West abandoning the country to its fate in the face of the Russian aggression. That's not true - the West has prevented the collapse of the Ukrainian economy with loans, is actively funding reforms (Prosecutor-General's office, etc.), and provided half a billion dollars-worth of non-lethal aid to the military. Clearly, not even close to being enough, but not nothing. At the same time, this conflict is no longer about Ukraine vs. Russia - it has become a global contest of the West vs. Russia, in which Ukraine is just a player, and far from the main one given its relative current weakness. The West is using Ukraine to tie up the Russian forces and bleed Russia in blood and treasure, which is important in its own right, but delegates Ukraine to a secondary role. At least until the active phase of the conflict begins.

As it stands today, the outdated Russian military technological base is no match for the NATO forces. It's stationary and mobile land nuclear capabilities are in a sorry state, and would quickly fall victim to the preventative or counter-strikes by the NATO. Russia's much touted nuclear capablity is also likely to have been hugely exaggerated, given the state of the domestic Uranium and Plutonium industries (nuclear warheads have a set utility horizon, which decreases every year). Thus, the only truly dangerous to the West weapon in Russia's arsenal is its fleet of nuclear submarines, which are difficult to detect, and thus difficult to counter.

However, the US has taken step to increase its capabilities in submarine detection, among other precautions, signaling a soft transition to a new phase of the conflict. More information can be found in this article: Pentagon Increases Budget to Counter Russia.


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