Monday, August 17, 2015

Analysis of the Current Geopolitical Situation: US, Ukraine, Russia

1. The US is clearly not interested in a rapid collapse of Russia, as the task of securing the Russian WMD's, nuclear power stations, bio- and chemical weapon storage sites, etc., would fall squarely on its shoulders. Logistics of getting it done, across the 1/8th of the planet's landmass, are extremely challenging, and the US (or NATO) is currently not in a position to pull it off to a degree that would satisfy the decision makers.

2. This task is further complicated by the world community's expectation of the US/NATO to prevent China from absorbing a large chunk of the Russian Far East, and from enlarging its arsenal at the expense of the Russians, in case the Russian Federation falls apart under the external pressure of sanctions and internal rot of the regime's command structure.

3. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the US/NATO will arm the Ukrainians any time soon, as a military defeat of the Russian forces within Ukraine, followed by a successful repelling of the consequent Russian invasion, would undoubtedly mean the end of Putin's regime with a high probability of initiating the collapse of the RF as an entity.

4. Given the situation, the US will continue to play a long game, slowly suffocating the Russian economy with further sanctions, and to weaken its role as a regional power by actively undermining the Moscow - Tehran - Beijing power grouping. Congress will continue to occasionally clamor for more, but it is unlikely that any additional overt measures will be taken to strengthen Ukraine beyond the scope of those already introduced. 

5. At the same time, NATO will continue to maintain, or even grow, the presence of its rapid deployment forces along the borders with Russia. The US will continue to fund the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, increasing the quality of its rapid deployment capabilities and preparing them for the task of occupation and holding hostile ground.

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