Gerasimov Doctrine

As we edge closer to a) larger war in the Middle East, b) simultaneous exhaustion of the US cohesion and combat readiness due to decades of strain, and growing Russian combat (hybrid and otherwise) capabilities due to the reverse in their oil fortunes, and c) inevitable US-Russia collision, prodded by the Chinese who stand to benefit in either case, so grows the significance of understanding your enemy's cognitive processes.

If you have not heard about the Gerasimov Doctrine, and would like to educate yourself about the framework the greatest enemy of the Western civilization has ever seen (no, not the Islamic fundamentalists), here are two excellent articles on the matter:

• Dr. Mark Galeotti's "The Gerasimov Doctrine and Russian Non-Linear War"
• Charles K. Bartles' "Getting Gerasimov Right"

This Is How Banana Republics Are Made

My greatest concern with the incoming administration is making the deep corruption blatant and highly integrated. The GOP leadership has already demonstrated its lack of ethics, that's nothing new (e.g. McConnel's refusal to recuse himself from his wife's confirmation hearings), but to-date these guys have not had the access to an amazing trough of money that flows through the American economy.

No multinational CEO wields so much power and can influence the outcome of truly massive deals as the top executive of the United States of America, who is already a plutocrat/businessman first and a politician a distant -x. If the Ukrainian politicians, which came to power on the wings of an anti-corruption revolution, cracked and crumbled, almost all, before the lure of the relatively modest riches available for plunder in Ukraine, imagine what kind of $$ seduction their US counterparts will shortly face. And they will fall, too, for very few have principles strong enough to resist such fabulous wealth, the rest be damned. And once the top cracks, this corruption will seep and saturate various political institutions and mechanisms, ensuring its long-term survival.

Such rot, although slow moving, inevitably boosts centrifugal forces that plague every state, and the larger the state the stronger the forces. Certainly, these forces can be counteracted, and the corruption pushed back. But if the US does find itself in such a predicament, it would take decades and much blood to root out. Take it from a Ukrainian.