Gerasimov Doctrine

As we edge closer to a) larger war in the Middle East, b) simultaneous exhaustion of the US cohesion and combat readiness due to decades of strain, and growing Russian combat (hybrid and otherwise) capabilities due to the reverse in their oil fortunes, and c) inevitable US-Russia collision, prodded by the Chinese who stand to benefit in either case, so grows the significance of understanding your enemy's cognitive processes.

If you have not heard about the Gerasimov Doctrine, and would like to educate yourself about the framework the greatest enemy of the Western civilization has ever seen (no, not the Islamic fundamentalists), here are two excellent articles on the matter:

• Dr. Mark Galeotti's "The Gerasimov Doctrine and Russian Non-Linear War"
• Charles K. Bartles' "Getting Gerasimov Right"

This Is How Banana Republics Are Made

My greatest concern with the incoming administration is making the deep corruption blatant and highly integrated. The GOP leadership has already demonstrated its lack of ethics, that's nothing new (e.g. McConnel's refusal to recuse himself from his wife's confirmation hearings), but to-date these guys have not had the access to an amazing trough of money that flows through the American economy.

No multinational CEO wields so much power and can influence the outcome of truly massive deals as the top executive of the United States of America, who is already a plutocrat/businessman first and a politician a distant -x. If the Ukrainian politicians, which came to power on the wings of an anti-corruption revolution, cracked and crumbled, almost all, before the lure of the relatively modest riches available for plunder in Ukraine, imagine what kind of $$ seduction their US counterparts will shortly face. And they will fall, too, for very few have principles strong enough to resist such fabulous wealth, the rest be damned. And once the top cracks, this corruption will seep and saturate various political institutions and mechanisms, ensuring its long-term survival.

Such rot, although slow moving, inevitably boosts centrifugal forces that plague every state, and the larger the state the stronger the forces. Certainly, these forces can be counteracted, and the corruption pushed back. But if the US does find itself in such a predicament, it would take decades and much blood to root out. Take it from a Ukrainian.

The Wave of ....

And so, Trump has won. Boomers had their revenge on the Millennials, rural areas against the urban dwellers, and women defeated women.

I don't know what will happen, but if the trends I outlined in my previous post start coming true, we're all in for a long a dark night.

I do expect increasing social instability, first by the protesting disaffected masses that voted against everything that Trump stands for, then by the far-right backlash, then, as his promises will remain unfulfilled and policies drive the economy into a recession, by his own angry supporters.

Time to brace. Time to survive, and keep the flame of the American republic from being snuffed out.

America at the Precipice

(restored after an accidental deletion)

We are living in an interesting time .... As Americans, we are staring at the precipice, considering whether to make the next step. The far-right, fueled by the Russian money and led by their puppet as a part of probably the greatest asymmetric offensive on the Western world, realizing that the generational shift of power to the Millennials means their demise until the next cycle some 50-60 years from now, is making its last stand. And they are willing to do anything and everything - cheat, roll back freedoms, intimidate, corrupt, whatever, not to lose.

Across the ocean, a decrepit Russia is watching this with baited breath. Stuck between the juggernaut of China and NATO, they've gone after the West because it's more heterogeneous, where their money can deliver a double-whammy of financing the far-right and lubricating the human trafficking channels that flood Europe with waves of refugees, only to seemingly give credence to their puppets.

The US is the linchpin of this gambit - if Trump wins, the following is the worst case scenario, each stage building on the previous one:

• Economic warfare against Russia would cease, leading to the replenishment of its capabilities and reserves
• US economy goes into recession
• Global trade is disrupted, leading to a global economic slowdown
• System of checks and balances is curtailed or demolished (already in progress, giving the FBI's interference in the election process)
• Domestic instability spikes, leading to a crackdown
• US becomes a de facto fascist dictatorship
• NATO is weakened, or abolished
• Europe is left to face Russia alone, and turns into a bloody mess
• The world is be re-divided between the US, Russia and China
• Global conflict ensues between a weaker US, a much stronger Russia and China when the scheme breaks down, as it inevitably would. Global nuclear war.

If Hillary wins, the worst case scenario would be:

• Far-right rejects the elections' outcome
• Cold, or hot, civil conflict begins
• Paralyzed, the US cedes initiative to Russia
• War in Europe begins
• US government defeats the rebels, domestic conflict concludes
• US enters the war in Europe
• Russia, bled dry by the conflict, collapses
• China ceases Siberia and Far East, Japan - Sakhalin and other coastal areas and islands
• Russia is divided into the US, EU, Chinese and Japanese protectorates

I know both seem far fetched, but the absolute majority of people simply either don't realize how quickly wars are sparked and engulf huge areas (war in Ukraine was started by 15 Russian mercs; in Syria - by Assad's police firing on protesters), or live in denial.

We stand at the precipice .... and we must chose the America as a diverse democracy, even if it means everything I mentioned before. Because the alternative means no future.

Mars Can Wait, Or the Proper Approach to Terraforming Exo-Planets

These thoughts were prompted by Elon Musk's recently released ambitious, yet deeply flawed plans for the colonization of Mars. Although a fan of physics and other natural sciences, I am by no stretch of the imagination a scientist, and claim no credit for the theory stated below - the possibility of this idea being new and unexplored has to be astronomically small. However, it does make sense to me on an intuitive level, and thus I want to share it.

Since I mentioned my reservations about Musk's plans, it's only fair that I substantiate them - heavy, high-energy stellar radiation particles. The interplanetary space is flooded with them, and their effect on the human electrochemical systems would be quite severe. Even a few months of exposure would leave any potential Martian colonists debilitated. As currently envisioned, such an attempt would be suicidal.

Overall, I consider the idea of colonizing and then terraforming other planets a folly - manipulating the atmosphere and climate would inevitably change the landscape of the planet in question, very likely endangering the established human infrastructure and thus causing economic damage that would economically cripple, if not destroy, the fledgling colonies. Instead, we should start the terraforming process before there is a significant permanent human presence there.

It's common knowledge that life on Earth can exist because our planet's magnetosphere protects us from the solar wind and stellar radiation. Thus, it's obvious that such protection, whether for space transportation or for exo-planetary habitation, is absolutely required for any sustainable human expansion into the Solar System. However, although we do know how to create powerful magnetic fields, such as those used by the CERN collider, we don't have the technology to make such generators mobile, or to build them in situ on the Moon or Mars.

Since the two most suitable (and still hellish) nearby worlds, Mars and Venus, don't have it, why do we? All three planets in question have hot iron cores, yet the Martian and Venusian no longer rotate, and thus produce no current. We do have a good idea how planetary cores produce magnetic fields, but not how this process is kicked off. In my opinion, the answer is obvious and is visible in our skies most of the time. In short, we have to recreate the setup nature has granted us here on Earth - we have to give each a stable, rocky moon, proportionate to the parent planet's mass, with a hot iron core. The interaction between the planetary and moon cores would provide the necessary first step to establishing a stable local magnetosphere. What we don't know is how long it would take - years? Centuries? Millennia?

I understand the magnitude of such an endeavor, and we are obviously nowhere near the necessary level of technology. If it ever comes to pass, this would be to largest, most audacious project the humanity would have had attempted up to that time. And a dangerous one, since migrating and parking such massive objects would inevitably impact gravitational interactions of the inner planets and the asteroid belt objects, and thus their orbital dynamics. In addition, there inevitably will be an impact on the host planet as well - quakes, volcanic eruptions, other tectonic activity.  But conceptually, it is technologically feasible and such risks can be managed.

Where could we source such objects? For Venus, the obvious candidate is Mercury, although wrangling it from the Sun's grasp would be no easy fit. Otherwise, there is quite a field of candidates in the gas giant systems, possibly even in the asteroid belt or as far away as the Kuiper belt.

In the meantime, we should focus on the Moon. It's proximity would allow us to establish a lifeline even with the current level of technology, it is far closer and has all the elements needed for establishing a sustained human presence, including water, vast underground caverns, etc. Colonizing the Moon will push the innovation necessary for the creation of portable magnetic field generators of appropriate power to protect shipping and a base, then a city, etc. It will also provide a vast amount of wealth to fund such exploration, and with time, invaluable experience. As a species, we will learn how to colonize other planetary bodies there. Mars can wait.

The Eye of Kremlin Looks South

Landscape overview:

The war in Ukraine continues, unabated, but largely out of the Western headlines. The Russian intervention in Syria continues as well, albeit reduced in scope, thanks to the Turks cutting the Russian supply lines by closing their air space and harassing the Russian ships at Bosporus.

The American long-game of economic isolation and sanctions is paying dividends, with the Russian economy on the verge of collapse, and the level of living sliding deep into the undeveloped world category. 

The Syrian migration gambit paid off by significantly destabilizing the EU, more due to the moral and societal choices made by the European society than to the Kremlin's designs.

Russian population has become ever more militant, raising the spectrum of the darkest days of the Soviet empire. Russia has reignited the Armenian-Azeri conflict to draw the Turkish attention away from its southern borders, sponsored a series of terrorist acts in Turkey itself to punish it for interfering in the Russian plans in Syria, and stoked the ambers of the Georgian war by announcing a Crimea-like referendum in Ossetia.

NATO has been busy building up its rapid response forces and air defenses along the EU's eastern border, and landed a token force in Georgia.

Board is set, what now?

Russia's situation is getting desperate, but Kremlin is not yet done playing, not by a long shot. An actual confrontation with NATO would be a disaster, thus Putin needs a way to somehow jam NATO's ability to respond. And he has found his intended Trojan horse in Bulgaria, which occupies a strategically important geographic location, especially for the Russian designs in Syria.

It is no secret to anyone who's paying attention that Bulgaria, the poorest EU country, is essentially a mafia-run state, ruled by corrupt post-Communist elites with deep ties to Moscow. The country's economy is in a downturn; media landscape has recently seen a significant amount of Russian investment; the Black Sea coast has been colonized by a sizable Russian population. This, in addition to historical mythology peddled by the Russian interests to the Bulgarian population for over 200 years, has created a favorable for Putin platform to thrust the Russian hybrid war machine into the gears of NATO, in hope that Bulgaria is NATO's Achilles' heel.  

Recently, the level of activity and communications between Sofia and Moscow has spiked, obvious to observation. Bulgarian government has passed several new laws, essentially blocking the Bulgarian diaspora from taking any part in the domestic discourse and elections. Groups of masked men wearing the Georgiev ribbons have made appearances in Burgas and other Black Sea towns, carrying a marked resemblance to the DNR/LNR scenarios that played out in the Eastern Ukraine. It is clear that Moscow is applying a lot of pressure to the Bulgarian elite, and is trying to saw confusion and fear in the regions with a high number of ethic Russians.

Ultimately, having Bulgaria openly side with Russia would be the tactical victory Putin is seeking there - it would confuse the NATO processes, as now its membership would be divided. 

However, in my opinion, Putin will suffer yet another miscalculation - his designs in Bulgaria require vast amounts of money to pay for the risk the local elite would be assuming if they play ball. And money is evaporating from the Russian treasury at an alarming rate, with already little left in the reserves. Russia itself no longer appears to be a desirable destination should the gambit fail and the need to flee emerges, a la Yanukovich. Thus, I expect a lot of maneuvering by the Bulgarian government between the EU and Russia, and possibly some terrorist activity along the Black Sea coast, which may lead to a serious destabilization of the country, but not its open transition into the Russian camp.

Analysis of the Current Geopolitical Situation: US, Ukraine, Russia

1. The US is clearly not interested in a rapid collapse of Russia, as the task of securing the Russian WMD's, nuclear power stations, bio- and chemical weapon storage sites, etc., would fall squarely on its shoulders. Logistics of getting it done, across the 1/8th of the planet's landmass, are extremely challenging, and the US (or NATO) is currently not in a position to pull it off to a degree that would satisfy the decision makers.

2. This task is further complicated by the world community's expectation of the US/NATO to prevent China from absorbing a large chunk of the Russian Far East, and from enlarging its arsenal at the expense of the Russians, in case the Russian Federation falls apart under the external pressure of sanctions and internal rot of the regime's command structure.

3. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the US/NATO will arm the Ukrainians any time soon, as a military defeat of the Russian forces within Ukraine, followed by a successful repelling of the consequent Russian invasion, would undoubtedly mean the end of Putin's regime with a high probability of initiating the collapse of the RF as an entity.

4. Given the situation, the US will continue to play a long game, slowly suffocating the Russian economy with further sanctions, and to weaken its role as a regional power by actively undermining the Moscow - Tehran - Beijing power grouping. Congress will continue to occasionally clamor for more, but it is unlikely that any additional overt measures will be taken to strengthen Ukraine beyond the scope of those already introduced. 

5. At the same time, NATO will continue to maintain, or even grow, the presence of its rapid deployment forces along the borders with Russia. The US will continue to fund the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, increasing the quality of its rapid deployment capabilities and preparing them for the task of occupation and holding hostile ground.